sidelines. the strategy worked and wilson won in a land slight 100 years ago today. you fat head. and now you know the news. it's election eve, man, it's almost over. >> bill: the o'reilly factor is on. tonight: >> governor romney is a very talented salesmen. he has tried as hard as he can to repackage the same old bad ideas and make them out to be new ideas. >> the question of this election comes down to this. you want four more years like the last four years? >>. no. >> or do you want real change? >> yeah. >> bill: last-minute campaigning in the race is still tied according to most national polls. but over the weekend there was a momentum shift. we will tell you what happened with brit hume. karl rove and kirsten powers. >> were they denied requests for help during the attack? >> well, we are finding out exactly what happened. >> while the national press

has been largely missing in action about libya, some local reporters have grilled the president about it we will show you what happened there. >> he will win the popular by, i think about half a point, electoral college probably a very narrow margin. >> bill: also tonight charles krauthammer wants to make a prediction about the presidential election and i will tell you my thoughts as well. >> bill: caution, you are about to enter the no spin zone. the factor begins right now. >> bill: hi, i'm bill o'reilly. thanks for watching us tonight. what if your candidate loses? that is the subject of this evening's talking points memo. it pains me, pains me to tell you that i cannot make a prediction about tomorrow's vote. you know me. i'm a big mouth. but i really don't know what's going to happen.

however, i can call four states right now, georgia and alabama going for romney. new york and massachusetts for obama. you can mark that down. actually, i could call 40 states right now. only 10 are in play at the moment. but i'm not going to be a total waffle guy this evening. i think mitt romney will win florida. if the governor wins ohio as well, he will be the next president of the united states. but that's a big if. president obama seems to have blunted romney's momentum over the weekend. talking points predicted that would happen last week. because of hurricane sandy, and because the national media simply refuses to cover the libyan situation. so while romney had momentum one week ago, the storm stalled it. and that's where we are tonight. both candidates slugging it out, momentum for both somewhat subdued. in just about four hours the good folks in dixville, noch, new hampshire will cast the first ballots. i love the notch. nature at its best up there

romney will most likely carry the notch. but new hampshire seems to be leaning obama. if president obama loses the election, it will be because he could not convince americans that his big government philosophy would improve the economy. even though mr. obama had trouble in other areas like libya, it is the economy that has made this election a struggle for him. the cold truth is, that the president has not improved the american economy. and if you are voting just on that, you will vote against him. if mitt romney loses, it will be because he did not get his message out. over the past three weeks of the campaign the governor has played it very cautious. he did few meaningful interviews. relying on local campaigning in key states to put him over the top. both the president and the governor will do interviews this evening on monday night football. but so what? those are cupcake events. they mean absolutely nothing. kind of sad that both

candidates dodged forums that might have challenged them. americans respect politicians who do answer the tough questions. as you may know, talking points does not endorse political condition democrats, believing that you are smart enough to know for whom you want to vote. but it is my job to look out for you and for the country. so i will be blunt. voting for president obama is very risky. he does not seem to be concerned about the 16 trillion-dollar debt. and is not likely to cut government spending very much. certainly possible that u.s. economy will pick up if he is reelected. we have a powerful economic machine here. there is plenty of cash on the sidelines. maybe if the president gets a mandate, things will improve. maybe. but just like in 2008, you vote for mr. obama, you are voting on hope, not accomplishment. likewise governor romney. that is also a hope vote. but, his philosophy of robust capitalism seems to make a bit more sense than to continue massive government spending in order to stimulate job

creation. on the downside, the governor has not fully explained what programs he would cut and now he would keep the treasury afloat while lowering taxes. but romney did eliminate the deficit gap in masses while governor. and does have a lot of experience in economic matters, unlike the president that is, ladies and gentlemen, about as fair as i can make it what i have just told you is beyond dispute. on a personal note, i'm very disappointed in president obama for dodging the questions about libya, which he continues to do while the national press allowed mr. obama to avoid the libyan subject, a local reporter in denver confronted the president. >> were the americans under attack at the consulate in benghazi, libya denied request for help during that attack and is it fair to tell americans that what happened is under investigation and we'll all find out after the election? >> well, look, the election has nothing to do with four brave americans getting killed and us wanting to find out

exactly what happened. >> were they denied requests for help during the attack? >> well, we are -- we are finding out exactly what happened. can i tell you as i have said over the last couple of months, since this happened, that the minute i find ---found out what was going on i gave three very clear directives. >> bill: unbelievable. the directives were not clear because the situation remains unresolved. and the president continues to dodge. not telling us what he knows. to me, that's very disturbing. to me as an american. now as far as governor romney's chances are concerned, i believe wins in florida, north carolina, and virginia all states barack obama took last time around will happen. they will win those states. the governor also has to win ohio and it is there problems arise. because ohio is a dead heat today. according to a new rasmussen poll. i also think romney could win in colorado. but obama looks to have nevada locked up despite the awful unemployment situation in that state.

our pal larry sabato teaches at the university of virginia is predicting an obama win, 290 electoral votes to romney's 248 if obama -- if obama is the winner, that tally sounds about right. but carl rove sees it the opposite way. mr. rove will be here in a moment. of course dick morris continues to maintain that romney will win big. carrying pennsylvania and ohio, which would assure a romney victory. both morris and sabato will be on this program wednesday. again, i cannot make a prediction tonight. it pains pee. i don't like it. but i have to be honest. i can't do it. because even at this late date, some americans could still vote either way. both candidates still have a fighting chance. and that's the memo. next on the run down. the aforementioned carl rove will tell me how tragically wrong i am or something. and then, krauthammer, hume,

powers, march will all weighen in n. on the fact tour tomorrow. we'll be right back. ♪

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after all, when you're going the distance, it's nice to have the experience and commitment to go along with you. keep dreaming. keep doing. go long. >> bill: what will happen in the presidential vote tomorrow. with us one of the most astute in the country karl rove. all right. i got your little map. i got rove's little map here. i'm going to get into that in a moment. five new national polls out today. and you have dissected them and what do they say. >> was much and gallup have 49 romney, 48 obama. cnn has it tied 49%, 49%. mom moth 48%, 448. you know what my two favorite polls out of those five are? >> bill: abc? >> yeah. absolutely. 50 obama, 47 ron romney. of course they are 35 democrat.

29 republic for 6 democrat advantage that is one point less than they had in 2008. i don't know of any sane person who thinks that the democrat intensity in this election is going to match it. it's going to be somewhere like 3, 2, 1, or gallup says 1 point more republic than democrat. in which case obama's lead is wiped out in that poll. >> bill: i want to asurety audience on wednesday we will deal with the pollsters who may have put them thumb on the scale. >> cnn is another one. they have tied poll with 11 points more democrat. >> bill: that says that romney would win because they are stacki. >> absolutely. let's get into your electoral college map. i agree with almost every one of your selections here except new hampshire. i think the neighborhood matters. this was a state that bush won in 2000 and lost in 2004. why? because there was the guy from next door, john kerry. i think the same thing might come into play here.

look, i think, do i agree look these are very close calls. i think new hampshire and iowa, which i both awarded to romney, are toss-ups. but i tend to think they are going to come out on the romney side. new hampshire because it's a neighborhood. iowa i woman who runs the des moines register 47%, 44 lead for obama. remember she said i want to draw attention to five points in our sample have a choice for president but wouldn't tell us who they were. >> bill: but even if new hampshire loses new hampshire and iowa he he still wins. >> and nevada, wisconsin and pennsylvania, i think are all in play. >> bill: they may be in play but it would be an upset. the iowa thing i'm quibbling the latest poll in iowa has it tied and -- >> -- right. but, see my point is buy -- the des moines register is a liberal paper. if they call you up and say who are you for president and you say i have got a choice

but i'm not telling you i doubt your choice is barack obama. >> bill: although the des moines register endorsed romney. >> they did the poll before they made the endorsement. >> bill: right now you have 285 romney. 253 obama and rove's little map here. >> do you have a map showing your prediction. >> bill: i can't make a prediction. zero in on the most important thing of this whole map which is is ohio. >> right. now, there isn't one poll, not one that shows romney winning that state. it's either tied or obama wins. >> here is why i think. this most of those polls show inordinate, a "wall street journal," new york "wall street journal" nbc 8 point advantage for democrats. >> it's the same old story. >> look at early votes. early vote in ohio four years ago obama won it by 340,000 more democrats turned out and voted earlier absentee than republicans. this year as of saturday night. 155,000 fewer democrats had

turned out to vote early that absentee than voted four years ago. 120,000 more republicans. republicans win the election day. the last time they lost the elections day presidential election was 1964. they have cut the lead have from 340,000 to 75 million. >> bill: unless sunday and monday were big dem days. >> going to be good dem days. i have been watching this. a good item day cuts the republicans 2 or 3,000. >> bill: your indicator is the vote ahead favors the republicans as opposed to what happened last time around. 340,000 democrats than republicans. now. they have gone from 340 and down to 75,000, which is a shift of 265,000. >> bill: this is fact-based opinion and that's all i ask here.

now, you remember back in 2000 when you were running, i don't know whether you yourself were running the bush campaign, but you were involved heavily. what was your prediction that night when it literally was a dead heat? the whole thing was a dead heat? did you predict it correctly that night? >> no. i thought we would win iowa iowa. >> bill: so you were wrong back then. are there any similarities today to back thin? >> no. that was an open race. >> no incumbent. >> no incumbent there is a big difference between open race and incumbent race. look, it's like four years ago. you know, i was off by indiana and north carolina. which were. >> thousand votes in north carolina and 1%. less than 1% in indiana. this race is we are going to have going to be off coin

flip. we are going to have a number of states tomorrow night where it's going to be settled by thousands of votes. several tens of thousands of votes and even big states settled by less than 100,000 votes. >> this could drag on to friday or something. >> we have a very good sense biens with day morning. the final question for you tonight and part of election coverage on tuesday. it's always a prevailing wisdom is. if the challenger is that close. the challenger always wins. because you know the incumbent and you are not committed to him. does that hold in year. >> i think does. look we know who president obama is. he has a lousy closing message if you like what i have done for the last four years keep doing it. two out of every american people going in the wrong direction. only 30% in gallup say they

are satisfied with the direction of the country. status quo message is not a message that's going to sell very well. >> i think romney could have been bolder in the campaign. >> i heard that. >> bill: monday night football thing come on. mr. rove. two democrats respond to mr. rove. i wonder who they will predict. later hume, krauthammer and can i del kate middleton. -- caddell. all warning up in the bullpen coming up. where others fail, droid powers through.

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>> bill: impact segment tonight. of course both parties are predicting victory tomorrow. that's what always happens. joining us now from boston, democratic consultant here in new york democrat and fox news analyst kirsten powers. you just listened to carl rove, right? >> um. >>um did his prediction make you sad?

you can tell i'm wiping away the tears from my eyes. look, i think that people are looking at the polls in completely different ways. carl is looking at sort of the public polls and things. they are weighted the wrong way. you can't really rely on these. i'm more in the other camp. i'm going on the idea that i think these polls have been pretty consistent across the board when i talk to people who know about polling, are seeing internal polls. they feel these polls are in line. and i think they point to an obama win. >> bill: you are banking your analysis, powers, on the polling? >>. no i'm banking my analysis on talking to people who are familiar with internal polling in the states that they say is pretty consistent with an obama win. >> you know what struck me, marianne as being very strange today seeing president obama go up to wisconsin. a state ordinarily would be a slam dunk for him. spending time there. in the last days of his campaigning. the majority isn't there because as kirsten pointed out it's internal polling. he figured he had to go up

there. that's sending a signal to me. i don't know if he is going to carry -- if mitt romney can carry wisconsin. but i, you know, if one only one upset mitt romney is the next president. no margin of error, right? >> that's right. can you say the same thing about rom anymore. mitt romney was in florida. even if he loses florida. pinned in florida which he cannot win the presidency without. wisconsin, iowa and new hampshire, one thing no one has mentioned, same day registration. barackbarack obama's campaign ny better than doing same day registration. nobody getting better to the polls like they did with early registration. same thing tomorrow big difference. >> bill: i agree with you in new hampshire. it doesn't look like romney is going to pull that one out. iowa. you know, the latest poll out there, dead heat. dead heat always go to the challenger. i would say romney got a good

chance there wisconsin, that would be the upset that he needs. thought reason i think mitt romney was in florida because he has to have that. you have to start there. at 7:00 tomorrow the polls close in florida except for the panhandle sliver. if baier and kelly go, obama wins. good night, everybody. let's go over to gossip girls. it's all over right? that's it. lawsuit i don't want to miss gossip girls unless i have absolutely have to. that's why he is down there, he has to win florida. >> florida is a -- >> marianne's point. i don't want to speak for marianne. marianne's point six months ago, a year ago. >> bill: it was always tight in florida. >> no, no. that is not true. it was very much considered to be a republic. it's not. >> bill: obama won the state last time. >> it doesn't matter. marianne you can back me up

here. florida was very much considered to be going republic and it was not considered to be -- >> bill: i never thought that obama won fairly significantly last time and it was tied with, you know it was tied with gore bush thing. florida changing item graphic state. >> it is. but look at all the republicans who won in florida in 2010. they own everything including marco rubio. many people thought that obama would have a much time. you will see how close obama will come to taking florida and mitt romney had to spend the last day here. >> bill: florida, i will take romney. are you going to take obama? >> no. i'm not saying he is going to win. i'm not saying he is winning florida. are you romney down there was worth every minute. >> bill: we just care about winners. i don't want to bet because it's against the law to bet on presidential race and i don't want to go to jail. i know if i do bet, have someboy at cnn will call the feds.

if you had to bet though, how much -- >> -- if i can get to you bet you get jail time? is that how that works? >> bill: i'm not falling in that trap. okay. would you put a lot of money on obama? or just a little? >> i would say i'm about 70% how about you, march? a lot? mope ed -- would you vote the mope head on there? >> i would put the vespa on this one. i think obama wins in a close race but if the lawyers get involved, all bets are off. >> bill: that's terrible for the country. >> it is. >> bill: the prediction i made last week is that romney's momentum was blunted by the storm because it took him off -- >> -- i totally agree. >> bill: you agree with that? >> yeah. >> bill: you agree momentum romney had it, storm came he disappeared from the main story line, right? >> romney's momentum had stalled before that but that

really put the nail in the coffin. >> bill: i don't think it stalled before that you saw he was ascending and then that storm just whacked him right off and it also gave obama some breathing room because he only got asked about libya was the guy out in colorado. >> best way to keep your job is to do a good job. that's what he was doing. >> i said the best way to keep your job as president is to do a good job. when you have your worst critic become your best friend on that day chris christie very helpful to president obama. >> bill: i don't know chris christie being his best friend. i think he was picking his pocket. you know what they do in jersey? >> it worked. >> bill: all right, ladies. thank you very much. we appreciate it new results of bill o'reilly.com poll. we asked a simple question. do you believe the factor has been fair covering the election? more than 30,000 of you voted. 79% say yes. we have been fair. 21% do not agree putting unfair label on my forehead. now, 21% out there, i want you to email me and tell me where we have not been fair. very specifically. i will read some of those

letters on webs. plenty more ahead as the factor moves along this evening. pro-vote campaign coverage charles krauthammer, brit hume and pat caddell big lineup. we hope you stay tuned to those reports. [ male announcer ] how can power consumption in china, impact wool exports from new zealand, textile production in spain, and the use of medical technology in the u.s.? at t. rowe price, we understand the connections of a complex, global economy. it's just one reason over 75% of our mutual funds

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>> bill: hume zone segment tonight. let's bring in fox news analyst brit hume. you don't make predictions. you are above that. >> no, i'm not. i'm not able to. >> bill: anybody can do it. have you got a 50% chance. >> i know. it's not high enough for me.

>> i'm not going to force you because we have krauthammer. he is screaming and wants to make the prediction. >> bill: based possible what you heard now, you heard rove, you have heard two ladies and you have heard me. all right? those conversations, what strikes you as most relevant the night before the vote? >> look, my sense is, bill, that these cases, that we're hearing from both sides are utterly plausible. i listened on conference calls today to the managers of both campaigns. and they both make a case after you listen to them. than could be right. where we are, i think as a reporter. i look at it this way. we are looking at a situation where the national polls basically say this is a tie. right? >> bill: right. >> this is basically a time the state polls portray obama ahead. and there are a lot of them. and they are pretty much all in one direction. and particularly in places like ohio, in particular which is a linch pin. you look at that reporters are not normally attracted to scenarios that have never happened before it has never happened before whether you have had an entire welter of polls and they are all off.

on the other hand, the point that carl rove made to you is a very good one. a lot of these polls reflect an electorate that which is more democratic than most people think is going to turn out on election day. >> bill: rove is also analyzing votes that have already been cast. he sees a big difference between 12 and 8. >> obama is ahead in many of these key states with early voting but not as far aheads as he was four years ago. that reflects the enthusiasm and intensity level obama voters less than four years ago. if you look at the romney as it exists today not the way it exsixthed a few months ago and at the beginning the tway is now. look at the crowds, all those things, crowds are not a great way. >> bill: antidotal. >> good sign of intensity. there is a lot of the intensity on the republic side. that matters on election day. >> bill: all the polls say that that the obama supreme sups are much more engaged than --

i mean, the romney supporters are much more engaged than obama supporters. >> problem that disengaged vote counts as much as highly engaged vote. that's the problem. i pointed out kirsten power goes up to wisconsin today and that snapped my head back a little bit. northbound were internal polling up there says there might be a problem in wisconsin. >> well, or it suggests that it's worth the time to make sure that this upper midwest blocking operation that they have got going where they have got this group of states they think they can a combination of which will block romney needs to be absolutely nailed down and why not go? >> bill: because he has got ohio and he has got florida. states like that, virginia particularly. that he could -- >> -- look the point that's been made. wisconsin has been a good state for the republicans over the past couple of years. >> bill: yeah. but that shows me that something happened there. >> well, we always think that

these people are look at interrible polls that are very different from what we know and they know -- they don't. >> bill: do they have frequent flier miles? they can go up to wisconsin and get on the plane. >> they have got the time and the money. they might as well go somewhere so you go. >> bill: what happened to paul ryan? is he still in the race or take a vacation. i haven't seen him. >> sure you have. >> bill: where? >> if you are watching the news reports we are doing on fox news. is he a part of most of these pieces is he out there. >> bill: where? i'm telling you he disappeared. >> someone gets named vice presidential slot on the ticket and there is a noflt effect. the person looks like they are going to upstage the candidate. it never happens. >> bill: i don't know where he is. you need a g.p.s. to find him and same thing with biden. biden is in pennsylvania all day long. >> you hear about these guys. >> bill: now, is there any chance that our pal dick morris is right that it's going to break romney's way big? >> i suppose there is a chance. i think there is a greater chance that you get a big

romney win and you get a great big obama win. but i don't foresee a huge landslide. >> bill: not going to be this hanging chad thing? we can't go through that again. >> that was 37 days. >> bill: we can't go through that again. >> i was anchor the news coverage at that time in washington. i was up late reading florida case law on the internet. that that is how crazy it was. >> bill: i must tell the audience for hume to stay up past :00. this is huge. all right, brit hume, everybody. he will be here tomorrow. we'll all be here tomorrow night against our will. when we come right back, charles krauthammer need i say more? krauthammer predicting who will win. tomorrow night. moments away. at i could smoke for the first week... i'm like...yeah, ok... little did i know that one week later i wasn't smoking. [ male announcer ] along with support, chantix is proven to help people quit smoking. it reduces the urge to smoke.

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introducing the business smart inkjet all-in-one series from brother. easy to use, it's the ultimate combination of speed, small size, and low-cost printing. >> bill: thanks for staying with us. i'm bill o'reilly in the campaign 2012 segment tonight. go down to washington where our pal charles krauthammer is telling it the world a whole bunch of things about the presidential election. he has been listening to the factor this evening. so, at the end of the segment, you promise me you are going to give a prediction. you have already given one but i want to know if you are going to hold to that. the bigger picture to you, ha what has convinced you about your prediction is is, what? >> well, look, you can do the calculation as karl rove does it and i believe every word -- i mean, i agree with his

analysis from the microview state after state. but i want to do it from the macroview. people say the national vote doesn't count. well, technically, yes. but it's very important understanding what's happened. last monday a week ago, romney had if won this race if it ended up monday night. up 4, 5, 6 national polls. you can't be up that nationally and not win the electoral cleaning, i don't care how you slice it or dies dice it it then something happens. then you get the october surprise which is devastating to romney in this sense. and we know this empirically because in the national polls where romney was up 4, 5, 6 he goes to zero to nine news one essentially. number he becomes irrelevant. he was very presidential in the debates. obama was small. that's reversed. he becomes irrelevant in the storm. number two obama plays the commander and chief. the picture in the situation room. where was he in the benghazi in the situation room,

separate issue. nobody is going to ask it. but he looks like the commander and chief. number three and the biggest one. was the christie bear hug. here is the guy who is the most smash mouth, in your face republic partisan, bear hugging the president, praising him how he cooperates. the weakness obama had with the independents has been that he has been seen correctly as the most partisan president of the last half century. obama care passed without one vote on the other side. simply one example. so on three counts, this huge gift obama gets. >> bill: the storm as you said deemphasized what romney was all about. do you think that christie. >> but. >> bill: christie knew what he was doing. the gift he was giving the president? >> look, i'm a psychiatrist, but i don't play one on tv. so i can't tell you what is inside his head. but i can tell you what the

effect was. that's the kind of advertising obama couldn't have purchased with $10 million. what he gets the picture of the most partisan opponent hugging him and praising him. now, but here is why i still say romney is going to win. that effect will last only three days. whenever you have a catastrophe, the solidarity effect is three days. and then you get the reality setting in. all the stories, the lildz stories, you know about it personally. all the stuff about the abandonment. the inefficiencies, all of the other stuff. it doesn't redowned on obama the way it did on bush and katrina. because obama is a democrat and bush was a republic. and the media aren't going to play it up. none the less, it stopped the sandy effect. and you can see it now in the nationals. if you look at the last four national polls, romney is now coming back. he is up. he is either tied or plus one. so i see and that's as of

saturday saturday sunday today and tomorrow. i think romney comes back. he he doesn't come all the way back. is he not going to be plus five. but the fact that he is coming back has an effect. here is where it has an effect on the battleground states if they are all very close, all nine or ten of them. 1%, 1 or 2 either way, then it's a best of your knowledge of dominoes. then all of them will go one way. which is why it looks so bad for romney on saturday or friday. now that i think he is coming back somewhat nationally, you are getting an evening effect. i think they are going to split half and half. and there are paths easy ones for romney to win electorally if, as i predict, the rebound in the national poll is continuing, which i think it is. >> bill: is there anything that romney could have done to get himself back in the public eye with a very strong

message? because, as you know, as being a sports fan, he went into the prevent defense. didn't take any chances. ground game out. is there anything that he could have done to put himself up there beside, of course the the big interview tonight on monday night football? they are both doing it it? >> which the hurricane hit, there was nothing he could do. before he could have done stuff. remember, if you didn't see a hurricane coming in the future, an act of god. i mean a lucky stroke for obama, the romney strategy, which was a very, as you say, it was a very conservative one. a very defensive one, was working, because he was the momentum he got in the debates while it was slowing was still continuing, and it was clearly going to carry him over the top. but, in retrospect, if you knew there was going to be this event. >> bill: yeah it you would have been -- >> what you would have have done third debate. it's libya where he would have went week weak. he could have hit obama. he never touched him.

and the media therefore had an excuse to stay away from it. that i think would have been devastation for obama. and distraction for obama. and that, i think, would have sealed it but romney played it it safe. and all of a sudden the october surprise. >> bill: okay. ohio. that's where it is. i think the winner of ohio wins the election. do you have any special feeling for that state? because i don't. i think romney will take florida and virginia and north carolina based on what i have seen. >> i agree. >> bill: ohio i can't call it? >> i think ohio goes to many romney for the reasons karl said. if you look at the early polling, obama is way behind where he was four years ago and ther thing is, you see the intensity factor in all the polls everywhere on romney's side. and republics tend to be somewhat under represented in the polls. you put them all together, romney wins ohio. one more state and he he is

president. >> bill: all right. charles. appreciate it everybody will be here tuesday as i mentioned. on deck pat caddell who polled for jimmy carter and we all know how that turned out. but we have forgiven pat. he has been looking at some key states like ohio. he will tell us what he knows after these messages.

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>> bill: back of the book segment tonight, as we said in the talking points memo, mitt romney may very well win florida, virginia, north carolina. however, ohio is the key to mr. romney's future. here now former democratic pollster and now democratic pollster pat caddell. i have to apologize you polled for carter? '76 when you were 11 years old. >>' so, when you are looking

at the polls, let's take pennsylvania. okay? that's an interesting state. so, it was thought to be a safe bet for barack obama. but now some polls say romney has a shot. if romney were to win pennsylvania, he is the president. and he wins, right? >> yeah. >> bill: what's the deal there. >> here is what is happening in pennsylvania and some of the other states from the first debate. i have argued that ohio, florida, virginia in some ways have been poisoned by so much money. so much negative money. so much field operations. when we have the first debate, romney moved the movement in the states that were supposed to be safe for obama was even greater than it was in the swing states. pennsylvania among them. we may be in a situation where those states are relatively burgeon. >> bill: didn't buy the negative ads there and romney wasn't demonized the way he he was in ohio. >> exactly and they don't have the ground game like they do

everywhere else. >> bill: the president's team has a big get-out-the vote campaign in all minority precincts everywhere in the country. >> but they concentrated on the swing states. this is like a military thing. let me just say, let's talk about the overall what's happening which is important. i want to make a point. romney made a mistake, i believe and i said at the time by not introducing libya for the same reason. >> bill: we aall agree. >> it would have contrast the storm. history tells us this. let's take '76 for example. against incumbent challenger. the incumbent usually gets a bounce toward the end. obama got exaggerated by the storm. okay? >> >> bill: yeah. >> in 1976, gallup on saturday night had ford 1 point ahead of carter. he had caught up. on sunday and monday, it kicked back to carter very strongly. and the reason was, because you know what the issue became suddenly was suddenly the issue was oh my god am i really going to keep gerald ford? now obama this becomes an issue for people in making

last-minute decisions. >> bill: they like obama personally. all the polls say that and just like george w. bush. they like the president. they being the majority of voters. >> bill: it's the job, it's the economy. >> of course it is. >> bill: there are a few people who even at this late date don't know what they are going to do. most of them are in saloons and they have to pull them out. all right? but they just don't know what they're going to do. when it comes down to likability in this race. obama defeats mitt romney on likability. >> favorabilities are now even according to gallup. the same. romney was out of this thing before the first debate. the question for people is last minute people you are talking about. what are they going to vote on? and the problem for the president what makes this different in 2004 is the economy. this isn't margin of corruption. >> bill: you don't make this prediction. >> i say this election is margin of corruption could go either way. i do think probably the last day or so it has started to kick back to romney.

>> bill: that's what krauthammer believes. if there is one state that romney could pick off that people don't expect it to be. >> look, wisconsin had a presidential elections this year over 2 million people massive ground game there too. remember, it was going to be close. remember the exit polls that night said it was even? no, republicans won by 6. >> are you predicting wisconsin? you asked me that's 10. you asked me got colorado. >> pat caddell everybody, there he is we have the factor tip of the day which is another prediction but it's about a film that you might find interesting. the tip 60 seconds away.

>> the tip of the day, a movie prediction you may be interested in. first the mail. aaron from orange county, virginia. >> good recall, aaron, he did not. i believe he regrets that, as does john kerry. >> kyle from from montana. >> mark parker, jonesville, north carolina. >> that's because the supply of jobs does not meet the demand. therefore, employers can pay less. >> from florida.

>> demille, do you have a spare room? unbelievable and painful. from oklahoma city, oklahoma. >> who the bleep knows, charles? it's the local authorities in new york and new jersey that are screwing up big time. instead of making sure power sources were available before the storm, they did nothing. every gas station should be required to have power backup in case of emergency. instead these people have zip. but if you want cigarettes, they have them. long island, simply chaos. little advance planning was put into place. from new south wales, australia. >> norman sheriff, sidney, australia. >> i say what else is new, norm?

the liberal media is usually shocked when another media person doesn't think like they do so the labels come out. when was the last time 60 minutes described someone as liberal? that's an interesting question. >> i appreciate that, susan. stay safe over there. and from new york city. >> i'm sorry for your ordeal. i hope the book brings from constructive distraction. and finally, steven spielberg's new film "lincoln" opens in los angeles and the following friday everywhere. i saw the film last week. not exactly a date movie, but for those of you interested in abraham lincoln and american history in general, this is a brilliant film. i predict it will win best

picture of the year. and tommy lee jones, best supporting actor tore playing the ablishnist senator. he almost steals the film. if you have a frame of reference, you will fine it worthwhile. if not, there are plenty of vampire movies in a multi-plex near you. zombies and vampires everywhere. remember, abraham lincoln was a vampire a few months back but this is not that movie, this is a really good movie. the tip of the day, you might want to check it out. please check out the foxnews.com/oreil love y. the word of the day when writing to us, don't be